The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Thursday lowered the GDP projection for the current fiscal to 4.7-4.9 per cent due to exchange rate depreciation.
Industrial production re-entered the negative territory by contracting 1.6 per cent in January, mainly on account of the decline in output of capital goods, manufacturing and mining sectors. The output of the manufacturing sector -- which constitutes 77.6 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- shrank by 2 per cent in January, as against a growth of 1.8 per cent during the same month last fiscal, as per data released by the government on Friday. The worst performance was witnessed by the capital goods sector, which recorded a contraction of 9.6 per cent during the month under review, compared to a 4.4 per cent decline a year ago.
India's GDP is poised to accelerate to 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of improved performance in industry and services but it may take some time for the country to reach its potential growth rate, says an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
The matter came up before Justice Subramonium Prasad who listed it for hearing on October 16.
'India remains a bright spot amid the global slowdown.'
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The marginal improvement in the index of industrial production was mainly on account of higher power generation and mining sector output, while manufacturing declined.
IIP down due to poor show by manufacturing, mining and power sectors
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
The manufacturing sector, a key indicator of economic activity, grew 10.6 per cent year-on-year in October.
the GDP estimates incorporate new source data and modified compilation techniques
The April-June quarter GDP slipped to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent.
Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Viral V Acharya further said that the impact of the notes ban would only be temporary and would help in bringing informal sector into the mainstream economy.
India's economic growth slowed to 7 per cent in the three months through June from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter
Rajan, who has also served as chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said he had no idea what statistics are pointing at currently and "a revamp" was needed "to really figure out what India's true growth rate is".
In fact, India's investment activity growth is also estimated to touch a 17-year low in FY20. With overall demand not showing signs of revival, investment activity may take longer to recover, economists said.
This kind of growth will turn India into a $8 trillion economy.
A recent data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) confirm that both the manufacturing and mining sectors shrunk in 2013-14 with fall in output.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
It came on the back of tepid dispatches in the March quarter as consumer sentiment took a knocking, owing to uncertainty ahead of the general election.
...benefiting 350,000 persons. Also, Trai detected and blocked seven million mobile phone connections involved in cyber fraud and suspicious activities.
The most serious recommendations to change the financial year came in the years preceded by deficient rainfall. The Jha committee was formed after droughts in 1979-80 and 1982-83, reports Rishika Pardikar/IndiaSpend.
'The government should act proactively to instil confidence in the private investors, and also boost the purchasing power of people directly or indirectly by ensuring minimum wages.'
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
In December, govt had lowered its growth forecast for 2015-16 to 7-7.5%
A day after masked goons entered Jawaharlal Nehru University and ran riot, injuring over 36 people with sticks, lathis and hammers, noted economist and professor C P Chandrasekhar resigned from a Narendra Modi government-appointed committee on statistics. The committee was set to hold its first meeting to review India's economic data. In his resignation letter, Professor Chandrasekhar wrote, "I regret to inform you that because of the situation in JNU where I stay, I will be unable to attend tomorrow's meeting." He was also quoted as saying, "The JNU's incident on Sunday has further undermined the faith in the system. It shows that we are now living in a different world and it's hard to work with a government in which you have lost faith."
As against an annual average growth of 10-11 per cent envisaged for the industry during the period, the actual annual average growth stood at 7.2 per cent during the plan period.
This is mainly due to GST impact on manufacturing and subdued farm output.
The prime minister was speaking at an industry meet organised at ONGC Petro Additions Ltd's complex in Gujarat's Dahej.
'The kind of situation we are seeing...we don't believe that this can happen in a settled democracy like India'
'One is happy. The moment one starts criticising the BJP, ED, IT and CBI comes to one's house.'
TCS, Wipro and Infosys dropped by up to 4.47 per cent, dragging down the BSE IT index by 2.96 per cent
The Survey lists some of the challenges that might impede India's progress.
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
Retail inflation remained above the RBI's comfort level for the second consecutive month despite slipping slightly to 6.26 per cent in June while the factory output recorded a growth of 29.3 per cent in May, mainly on account of the base effect, the government data showed. The marginal slippage in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was noticed despite little firmness witnessed in the food inflation which inched up to 5.15 per cent in June from 5.01 per cent a month ago. Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.3 per cent in May 2021 and 6.23 per cent in June 2020.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
RBI projects GDP growth in FY16 at 7.8 per cent, 30 bps higher than FY15. However, this comes with a downward bias.
Sounding a note of caution, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that India is "dangerously close" to the Hindu rate of growth in view of subdued private sector investment, high interest rates and slowing global growth. Rajan said that sequential slowdown in the quarterly growth, as revealed by the latest estimate of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last month, was worrying. Hindu rate of growth is a term describing low Indian economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4 per cent.
The Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to entertain a plea by 14 political parties led by the Congress alleging arbitrary use of central probe agencies against opposition leaders, asserting that laying down guidelines without facts of a criminal case will be "dangerous".
Economic affairs secretary S C Garg said that all macroeconomic parameters are performing well.
