Sounding a note of caution, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that India is "dangerously close" to the Hindu rate of growth in view of subdued private sector investment, high interest rates and slowing global growth. Rajan said that sequential slowdown in the quarterly growth, as revealed by the latest estimate of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last month, was worrying. Hindu rate of growth is a term describing low Indian economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4 per cent.
Indian IT-BPM industry raked in revenues of $119 bn in 2014-15.
Among other things, the agenda is likely to focus on increasing private investment, employment generation and giving relief to the farm sector
India's industrial output unexpectedly rose 1.2 per cent in May from a year earlier, led by a pick up in manufacturing, government data showed on Tuesday.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
The output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, had contracted by 2.5 per cent in the same month of last year.
The positive numbers raises hopes of recovery.
IIP down due to poor show by manufacturing, mining and power sectors
'India remains a bright spot amid the global slowdown.'
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Thursday lowered the GDP projection for the current fiscal to 4.7-4.9 per cent due to exchange rate depreciation.
India's GDP is poised to accelerate to 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 on the back of improved performance in industry and services but it may take some time for the country to reach its potential growth rate, says an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.
Anand Rayate, senior IAS officer and state coordinator for the Talathi Recruitment Exam-2023, said the statewide test conducted with the help of IT major TCS started at 11 am, instead of 9 am scheduled originally, after the fault was rectified.
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The marginal improvement in the index of industrial production was mainly on account of higher power generation and mining sector output, while manufacturing declined.
Rajan, who has also served as chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said he had no idea what statistics are pointing at currently and "a revamp" was needed "to really figure out what India's true growth rate is".
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
In fact, India's investment activity growth is also estimated to touch a 17-year low in FY20. With overall demand not showing signs of revival, investment activity may take longer to recover, economists said.
The manufacturing sector, a key indicator of economic activity, grew 10.6 per cent year-on-year in October.
Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Viral V Acharya further said that the impact of the notes ban would only be temporary and would help in bringing informal sector into the mainstream economy.
The April-June quarter GDP slipped to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent.
the GDP estimates incorporate new source data and modified compilation techniques
India's economic growth slowed to 7 per cent in the three months through June from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter
It came on the back of tepid dispatches in the March quarter as consumer sentiment took a knocking, owing to uncertainty ahead of the general election.
Retail inflation remained above the RBI's comfort level for the second consecutive month despite slipping slightly to 6.26 per cent in June while the factory output recorded a growth of 29.3 per cent in May, mainly on account of the base effect, the government data showed. The marginal slippage in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was noticed despite little firmness witnessed in the food inflation which inched up to 5.15 per cent in June from 5.01 per cent a month ago. Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.3 per cent in May 2021 and 6.23 per cent in June 2020.
This kind of growth will turn India into a $8 trillion economy.
A day after masked goons entered Jawaharlal Nehru University and ran riot, injuring over 36 people with sticks, lathis and hammers, noted economist and professor C P Chandrasekhar resigned from a Narendra Modi government-appointed committee on statistics. The committee was set to hold its first meeting to review India's economic data. In his resignation letter, Professor Chandrasekhar wrote, "I regret to inform you that because of the situation in JNU where I stay, I will be unable to attend tomorrow's meeting." He was also quoted as saying, "The JNU's incident on Sunday has further undermined the faith in the system. It shows that we are now living in a different world and it's hard to work with a government in which you have lost faith."
A recent data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) confirm that both the manufacturing and mining sectors shrunk in 2013-14 with fall in output.
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
The most serious recommendations to change the financial year came in the years preceded by deficient rainfall. The Jha committee was formed after droughts in 1979-80 and 1982-83, reports Rishika Pardikar/IndiaSpend.
The World Bank has retained India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3 per cent as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, surpassing pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors. "India's economy is expected to expand by 8.3 per cent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June's forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.
Constituencies that are going to the polls in the first phase, slated for April 19, have just 19 days for campaigning. Contrast that with those going to polls in the 7th phase, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
This is mainly due to GST impact on manufacturing and subdued farm output.
In December, govt had lowered its growth forecast for 2015-16 to 7-7.5%
In the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations.
The prime minister was speaking at an industry meet organised at ONGC Petro Additions Ltd's complex in Gujarat's Dahej.
As against an annual average growth of 10-11 per cent envisaged for the industry during the period, the actual annual average growth stood at 7.2 per cent during the plan period.
TCS, Wipro and Infosys dropped by up to 4.47 per cent, dragging down the BSE IT index by 2.96 per cent
The Survey lists some of the challenges that might impede India's progress.
Days after the Supreme Court held as "illegal" the extension of ED Director Sanjay Kumar Mishra's tenure, the Centre on Wednesday moved the apex court seeking modification of its order to allow him to continue in office till October 15 in view of the ongoing FATF review.
Economic affairs secretary S C Garg said that all macroeconomic parameters are performing well.
Growth of capital goods at 9.6 per cent is inspiring as the investment cycle is expected to rebound in the coming months.
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